Oscar Predictions: Part 3

This concludes my three part Oscar predictions posts. Check out parts one and two for my predictions in the other Oscar categories.

Oscars_poster_2016

This post features the following categories:

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actor
  • Best Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
revenant2Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: The Revenant
The Revenant was definitely the most impressive film I’ve seen this year when you look at as a package. I am shocked that I’m saying this but Mad Max really is a close second. I think where Mad Max falls off is that the screenplay was still a little…blockbuster-y. It’s a genre film, so I understand why, but in comparison to The Revenant, Mad Max doesn’t quite make the cut there. There’s been some talk about Spotlight winning Best Picture… I think that’s unlikely, and frankly – I’d be kind of pissed if it did. Spotlight is a good movie but it has not accomplished near what The Revenant and Mad Max did. The Best Picture winner should be a reflection of what movie had the best package deal – when all of the other categories are wrapped up into one, what does it look like? And The Revenant was beautiful.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
THE REVENANTWill Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Whoever wins the DGA Award is almost always the Best Director winner at the Oscars, so Innaritu has this in the bag, I think. The Revenant is a monumental film. It is an epic. His vision is what made that happen. The Revenant and Birdman are so different, but I still see a very distinct style from Innaritu that no other director can replicate. I love this guy.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
rev3Will Win: Leonardo DiCarprio, The Revenant
Could Win: …..
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
I LOVE that Leo is finally getting his Oscar. I am absolutely tickled by it. This is so long overdue. I might cry. I’m thrilled about this…but…I kind of wish this wasn’t the performance that he was winning for. I mean, don’t get me wrong, he was GREAT in The Revenant and this performance was very different from his previous performances, so it was refreshing. However, on the list of all of his performances, I’m not sure that I would put this one at the top. He SHOULD have won for playing Howard Hughes in The Aviator, he was excellent in Catch Me If You Can, The Departed, The Wolf of Wall Street…Hugh Glass just doesn’t fit in this repertoire somehow? Regardless, he was fantastic and, while the other men on this list were impressive, this is a NO BRAINER. Leo gets the Oscar. And I am SO. HAPPY.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
roomWill Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: …..
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room
Honestly, it’s not even worth speculating who other than Brie Larson could win this category. She was excellent in Room. That movie hinges so much on the audience connecting with her and her son and believing their chemistry and she did it perfectly. This is super exciting because she’s also at the beginning of her career – only good things will come from her in the future.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo SpotlightWill Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Could Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant OR Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
This is a WEIRD category this year. Usually the SAG Awards and Oscars have almost identical nominee lists in this type of category, but the only people that they share are Mark Rylance and Christian Bale….which leads me to believe those two have the best odds. I would like to see Ruffalo or Hardy win, but I’ll be able to sleep at night as long as Stallone does NOT win. He is not great in Creedjust because you can complete a coherent sentence on screen for once does not mean you get an Oscar for it! Personally, I’d rather see Jacob Tremblay from Room on this list or Idris Elba from Beasts of No Nation. I’m glad this category is usually first so that we can get it over with; it might ruin my night.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
alicia.vikanderWill Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
I loved Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. When I saw that movie in the fall I was convinced that this was her award and no one else’s. After I saw Spotlight I recognized that Rachel McAdams was a strong second place, but all of that got shot to hell when I saw The Danish Girl in January. I did not care for the movie, but Alicia Vikander was fantastic. She kept me emotionally connected to a story that I had checked out of after about an hour. She was also very impressive as the A.I. in Ex Machina, so I see this award as kind of a dual nomination for her. This is another REALLY tight category this year. It’s strange, usually it’s the Best Actor/Actress categories that are unpredictable and the Supporting categories that are a lock, but this year it is just the opposite.

The Oscars are TONIGHT on ABC at 7:30 (CT). I’ll be live tweeting during the event!

**full disclosure: I was not able to catch up with the shorts this year (animated, live action, and documentary), so those categories are omitted from my 2016 predictions**

 

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