Oscar Predictions: Part 1

Today is Oscar Day!!!

oscars

This begins Part 1 of my Oscar predictions. This post features:

  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Editing
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Foreign Language Film

Best Cinematography
Carol
, Ed Lachman
The Hateful Eight, Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale
The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario, Roger Deakins
revenant10Will Win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale
Should Win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Emmanuel Lubezki will go home with this award for the third year in a row. I will officially see every single movie that this man is the DP on; I am so impressed with what is able to do with a camera. John Seale’s work for Mad Max: Fury Road is a solid second place, but Lubezki owns this category.

Best Film Editing

The Big Short
, Hank Corwin
Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel
The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Spotlight, Tom McArdle
Star Wars:  The Force Awakens, Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey
big shortWill Win: The Big Short, Hank Corwin
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel
Should Win: The Big Short, Hank Corwin
All signs are pointing to Hank Corwin winning this category for The Big Short, but Mad Max is a definite possibility. Mad Max was a very well edited film, but the way The Big Short was edited was a part of what made that movie great, which gives it that slight edge ahead.

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Inside Out, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley and Ronnie del Carmen
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
Straight Outta Compton, Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus
spotlightWill Win: Spotlight, Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
Could Win: Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Should Win: Spotlight, Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
To be honest, I’m not crazy about any of the nominees in this category. Spotlight is certainly the favorite to win, and its biggest strength is the screenplay, so it would be a worthy winner. Ex Machina was a brilliant, refreshing film with a great screenplay, but it doesn’t quite carry the weight that Spotlight does. In addition to being a good film, the screenplay tells an important story, so it has morality and activism on its side as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short, Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (based on the book by Michael Lewis)
Brooklyn, Nick Hornby (based on the book by Colm Toibin)
Carol, Phyllis Nagy (based The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith)
The Martian, Drew Goddard (based on the book by Andy Weir)
Room, Emma Donoghue (based on her book Room)
big short-2Will Win: The Big Short, Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (based on the book by Michael Lewis)
Could Win: Room, Emma Donoghue
Should Win: The Big Short, Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (based on the book by Michael Lewis)
The Big Short is the clear favorite in this category and rightfully so. The movie managed to be entertaining, funny and explained some very complex financial systems in a way that the average viewer could comprehend them. Yet The Big Short is never patronizing; it acknowledges that the system was set up in a way that intentionally confuses the average consumer and gives you the tools to break through that barrier and understand these very recent events. I loved Room, I think the screenplay was perfect, so it is a solid 2nd place choice.

Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia – Spanish), Ciro Guerra
Mustang (France – Turkish), Deniz Gamze Erguven
Son of Saul (Hungary – Hungarian), Laszlo Nemes
Theeb (Jordan – Arabic), Naji Abu Nowar
A War (Denmark – Danish), Tobias Lindholm
SonofSaulCannesWill Win: Son of Saul, Laszlo Nemes
Could Win: Theeb, Naji Abu Nowar
Should Win: ?
Honestly, I haven’t had a chance to see any of these films, so I can’t give you my analysis. However, based on the other nominations/wins from other awards shows this season, it is very clear that Son of Saul will win this category. Theeb was a favorite at the BAFTAs but if you’re placing bets, Son of Saul is the way to go.

The Oscars are TONIGHT on ABC at 7:30 (CT). I’ll be live tweeting during the event! Parts 2 and 3 will be posted shortly.

**full disclosure: I was not able to catch up with the shorts this year (animated, live action, and documentary), so those categories are omitted from my 2016 predictions**

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