Oscar Predictions: Part 3

The third installment of my Oscar picks. You can read the first two parts here and here.

This post includes: Best Editing, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, and Director. My Best Picture Pick will be posted tomorrow!

oscars-post3

Best Film Editing
American Sniper, Joel Cox, Gary Roach
Boyhood, Sandra Adair
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Barney Pilling
The Imitation Game, William Goldenberg
Whiplash, Tom Cross
boyhood-darkroomWill Win: Boyhood, Sandra Adair
Could WinWhiplash, Tom Cross
Should Win: Whiplash, Tom Cross
Boyhood has been the favorite for this category from the start, and it is beautifully edited. Sandra Adair took twelve years of footage and pieced it into a smooth, digestable product that wasn’t overly simplistic or saccharine. I love just about everything about Whiplash, and one of the big things that I took away from it was how well it was edited. I’d prefer to see Tom Cross win in this category, but Sandra Adair is a fine, fine alternative.

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood, Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher, E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness
Nightcrawler, Dan Gilroy
Wes-Anderson-The-Grand-Budapest-Hotel-Ralph-FiennesWill Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness
Could Win: Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Should WinThe Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness
There is no doubt in my mind that The Grand Budapest Hotel will take home this award; and (reluctantly) I agree. I was not a big fan of The Grand Budapest Hotel, but the concept for the film is very unique and the plot unfolds in a way that is thoughtful and interesting. Birdman is the next likely option after The Grand Budapest Hotel; it has a wonderfully original story, but some of the flaws of that film probably stem from its screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper, Jason Hall
The Imitation Game, Graham Moore
Inherent Vice, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Theory of Everything, Anthony McCarten
Whiplash, Damien Chazelle
Imitation-Game2Will WinThe Imitation Game, Graham Moore
Could WinWhiplash, Damien Chazelle
Should WinThe Imitation Game, Graham Moore
My favorite part of The Imitation Game was the way that the story was written; the bouncing around between different time periods had a profound effect on the interpretation of the film. It looks like this is the only award that the film will go home with tomorrow and I think this is a fitting one. I would be thrilled to see Whiplash win, but I have a hard time really considering this an adapted screenplay; the film was written by Damien Chazelle based on a short he had written previously- I know it doesn’t fall into the criteria but I consider Whiplash more original than adapted.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
patricia-arquette-boyhood-2014-movieWill Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could Win: …no
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
There’s no point in even speculating the alternative winner in this category. Patricia Arquette has this in the bag. That’s not to say these other women didn’t give lovely performances, but Patricia Arquette was the key element keeping Boyhood warm and connected. The only thing I won’t love about this category is that it will be presented by Jared Leto because he won Best Supporting Actor last year but it SHOULD be coming from Michael Fassbender because he should have won that category last year!!!! 

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Whiplash (2014) -- Screengrab from exclusive EW.com clip.Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
It’s probably equally as silly to consider alternatives in this category as it was in the Supporting Actress category, but it’s worth acknowledging how CRAZY good Edward Norton was in Birdman. If J.K. Simmons’ performance didn’t exist he would definitely be winning this category. However, Whiplash does exist and J.K. Simmons is incredible.

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
la_ca_1202_still_aliceWill Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: …no.
Should Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
A week ago I would have at least acknowledged the slight possibility of Felicity Jones because she was my favorite part of The Theory of Everything. However, last night I saw Still Alice– hands down, Julianne Moore should and will win this. I’ll elaborate in a review later next week, but this is the performance of a career for her, the transformation she makes in under two hours is astounding.

Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, BIrdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
eddie-redmayne-1024Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
In this category sometimes you will find one unbelievable performance surrounded by 4 other very good performances, making the winner a clearer choice. This year you have 5 very, very good performances but none without their flaws. That being said, I think Eddie Redmayne will and should win the Best Actor Oscar. I think his role is the most challenging out of the nominees and he really did a very good job. The only thing that may work against him is the very negative press around the recent release of Jupiter Ascending– it shouldn’t impact the way that people vote on his performance as Stephen Hawking but it could. In which case, Michael Keaton would be the next most likely winner. 

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
imageWill Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
I thought for sure this would go to Richard Linklater a few weeks ago, but the DGA made it clear that Alejandro González Iñárritu was the favorite, of which I agree. Birdman was a directorial miracle. With so much happening in the narrative, the performances, the camerawork and staging- Innaritu really pulls off Birdman in a way that I would have never thought possible. Richard Linklater’s accomplishment with Boyhood is also huge, but given that Birdman was the better final product, Best Director should go to Iñárritu.

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